Democratic Primaries

[ladymoreta]

If you are a democrat, who are you supporting? If you are a republican, are you concerned, or do you think President Trump has an easy victory with any candidate?

[ladymoreta]

I'll go first. My top choice is Pete Buttigieg. I like that he is young candidate who also falls closer to moderate. I am hesitant because I know that he has not been a strong supporter of black activists, and I hope that he can involve people of color in establishing his platform.

[spotty_dog]

I loved Mayor Pete when I first heard him on Stay Tuned with Preet months ago. It's so refreshing to hear his take on the issues. But I keep coming back to a couple of things.

First, I think the current presidency has helped me to feel like experience matters. Experience in business doesn't count. Government is not business! Experience in lower levels of government or nonprofits might be slightly relevant. But I feel like Capitol Hill is unique to those other levels of government. I want to see people who've been there for a bit, who know the lay of the land. AND, so much government happens by consensus. To be a leader doesn't mean shouting dictates. It means unification and compromise. Listening skills. The mayor of a city of 100k has shown some of that experience and skill, but the learning curve between that and serving MILLIONS of people as the listener and decision-maker between thousands of department heads, AND the party leader coordinating the negotiations between the law-makers? I feel like even someone as brilliant as Pete is going to take months to get off the ground, but we have urgent needs. We need our President to hit the ground running.

Second, I'm a massive Walt Shaub fan. The former head of the Office of Government Ethics is just so unshakeably...well, ethical! He inspires me. Ethics needs to MATTER in the Presidency for it to be able to matter for the rest of the government. That means there should be zero question of their motive. I want to see a public servant who's a proven public servant, more than a reformed profit-seeker. And I want there to be zero financial entanglement. If you come to the presidency with personal fortune, I want to see total and complete divestiture. Put your money in a truly blind trust that's legally airtight, or just sell all your business positions and move to index funds that nobody controls. Service at this level requires sacrifice. This isn't necessarily a ding against Pete, but I just want to retch over the Democratic billionaires who've declared but not explained their divestiture plans. Jimmy Carter sold his peanut farm, FFS.

Third, I watched this video a while ago about the pervasive corruption in politics. Thanks, JLaw!

It convinced me that, until the law finally figures out campaign finance reform, we need to encourage it in the right direction by supporting candidates who reject large corporate donors.

And finally, I feel like women of color haven't steered us wrong yet. Consistently, that's the population that votes for the candidate that will progress the needs of the most vulnerable, and/or who will vote for the most likely effective candidate. And a rising tide lifts all ships. People of color are really REALLY skeptical of Mayor Pete's record as mayor. I feel I need to take that seriously.

So...for me, it's Warren. She's sharp, she's experienced, she's totally funded by individual donors, she's got tons of evidence of her ability to build consensus, she came up from almost nothing to school teacher to a lawyer to involvement in multiple areas of government and now years of experience in the Senate. It's a resume to die for. The only candidates similar are Yang and Sanders; the former is too moneyed and eclectic and inexperienced, and the latter too irascible to make me think he can be a consensus-builder. It's no good having big ideas if they never, ever get done. Plus Sanders' followers (especially on Twitter) are scary bullies and misogynists that make me second guess their leader's true intentions and mindset every day he doesn't take them to task.

Just my thoughts ATM. I hope Yang stays interested in politics (maybe he could run for local office?) and I hope Sanders doesn't stop being a pressure for populist interests. But I think we need Warren to get it done.

[Meenah]

I flip back and forth between Elizabeth Warren and Mayor Pete, would love to see them on a ticket together!

[MAPPLEBUM]

I'll likely vote for Bloomberg in the primary. I'm interested in getting Trump out of office and honestly feel he has the best chance. That's really it. I agree with most of Warren and Bernie's platforms (though I trend moderate) but I'm just not sure this is the moment. In fact, I'm not sure this can be the moment for any dem. I'm afraid we're going to have to pick up the pieces in 2024.

[MrsC]

Mayor Pete all the way for me! He's smart, he's logical, he's a good person. I hear the problems and I want solutions but Warren and Sanders brand of socialism hasn't really worked anywhere and I very much doubt that it would work here. My biggest hesitation is with Medicare for all. I read one analysis that said it would result in the bankruptcy of up to 80% of hospitals and a 30% to 40% pay-cut for physicians. Even if that weren't true, all of the successful examples of universal healthcare depend heavily on a reasonable cost private insurance industry. Maybe we will get there one day but it will take some time. Mostly, I refuse to vote for old white men and millionaires so that doesn't leave a lot of options.

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[MrsC]

On a side note...my sister just finished up her Masters in economics at London School of Economics. One theory there is that the DNC are pushing forward multiple far left candidates because they don't want to win this year and end up leading through another recession rather than getting things done. I thought it was interesting.
She is a civil servant in Ireland, which is pretty liberal socially but more fiscally conservative than a lot of European countries.

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[MAPPLEBUM]

Wow, that's interesting.


I take it back. I would vote for Buttigieg if it looks like he has a chance.

[MrsC]

It's the moderates/independents who decide the election. I think they would be far more likely to vote for Trump (like many did last time) or not vote at all (ensuring he wins) than swing alll the way to the left this time around. But maybe I'm wrong.

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[MsSassyBaskets]

Oof, so much to unpack. I largely agree with SpottyDog on Warren. I'm farther removed from politics than I was in the last election (my privilege is showing) so I'm not as in touch with the policy points as I should be, but I think she aligns closest with my beliefs. And as I did with Hillary, I believe she has the most significant experience of all the candidates.

As a sort of Minnesotan, I have a soft spot for Klobuchar because I've seen what she can get done, and I believe she's one of the most quietly effective pols out there. But she's too moderate. She'd be a great running mate for a more progressive candidate.

Mayor Pete has appeal... I like his policy, I like his story, I like his style, and I could get behind him if he's the candidate. But the lack of experience and track record does worry me.

I'm wistful for the Obama era, but problematic Uncle Joe is not the answer.

And Sanders. Ugh. His behavior toward female candidates, and the platform he gives his very problematic male supporters, makes me think he's a misogynist himself. He's a nasty, disagreeable piece of work who won't get a damn thing done. He has a terrible track record for effectiveness and zero foreign policy experience. I'll struggle with checking that ballot box if he's the candidate.

[spotty_dog]

It's the moderates/independents who decide the election. I think they would be far more likely to vote for Trump (like many did last time) or not vote at all (ensuring he wins) than swing alll the way to the left this time around. But maybe I'm wrong.

I kind of want to look at the data on this. Because I'm increasingly feeling like it's the extremes who decide the election. People don't turn out to vote because, "Eh, they're decent enough I guess." They turn out because they are energized by something that is different and radical. At least that's what I feel like I'm seeing. Like I said, it would be interesting to see the data. Fivethirtyeight.com here I come!

That said, last election my conservative uncle was soured on all the candidates, and my socially liberal but fiscally conservative dad was too. Both voted for McMullin. This time around, both are (so far) interested in Mayor Pete. So that's a little anecdotal evidence in favor of moderate candidates, I guess.

[MrsC]

I kind of want to look at the data on this. Because I'm increasingly feeling like it's the extremes who decide the election. People don't turn out to vote because, "Eh, they're decent enough I guess." They turn out because they are energized by something that is different and radical. At least that's what I feel like I'm seeing. Like I said, it would be interesting to see the data. Fivethirtyeight.com here I come!

That said, last election my conservative uncle was soured on all the candidates, and my socially liberal but fiscally conservative dad was too. Both voted for McMullin. This time around, both are (so far) interested in Mayor Pete. So that's a little anecdotal evidence in favor of moderate candidates, I guess.

This is really interesting! Now I'm looking at this as somewhat of an outsider since I have only been around American politics for 12 years. I feel like the majority of people vote along party lines in the end, no matter who the candidate is. There are generally only one or two viable options during primaries. I think independent votes are far harder to predict because their reasons for being independent are so varied. But I assumed that most independents were moderate because the ideals on the right and left are so different.
This year is different. I feel like there are no real moderate candidates. Even Pete's ideas are pretty far left of Hilary's, who would have been considered a moderate right?

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[MrsK]

I'll likely vote for Bloomberg in the primary. I'm interested in getting Trump out of office and honestly feel he has the best chance. That's really it. I agree with most of Warren and Bernie's platforms (though I trend moderate) but I'm just not sure this is the moment. In fact, I'm not sure this can be the moment for any dem. I'm afraid we're going to have to pick up the pieces in 2024.

My FIL is a Trump voter and he says he will vote Trump again if Bloomberg doesn’t get the nomination. I’d been wondering whether there is any Dem candidate (or independent or otherwise) that could sway a Trump voter, even a reluctant one.


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[spotty_dog]

This article reminded me of this thread! https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...james-carville

"Falling into despair won’t help anyone, though. I mean, you can curse the darkness or you can light a candle. I’m getting a fucking welding torch. Okay?"

[Meenah]

How about Bloomburg / Booker?