What do you think of this?

[mommax3]

I know in some thread or other around here, there was some discussion about our dependence on oil, especially now due to the jump in the price of gas. I have a friend from where we used to live (where the oil business has been huge for decades and you see pumpers pretty much everywhere you go) who inherited a *small* oil business from her late husband. This lady and I became friends because I taught with her last year.....meaning her oil business does NOT give her enough to live on. I sent her an email earlier in the week, teasing her about how she must be rolling in it now that the price of oil/barrel has gotten so high, and this was her reply:

I have to admit, it is ridiculous. It is scary, isn't it? I do like the price of oil, but I'm scared about the economy. Feast or famine is not a way to live.

For years and years I've heard people I have trusted in the oil business talk about how politicians have closed their eyes and ears to the fact that we need domestic oil and should be doing all we could to keep our own oil businesses up and running. When the price fell so low a few years back, the foreign oil folks really got a hold of us. Many independents went bankrupt or just gave up. People don't know how to work in the oilfields any more or don't want to do that much hard labor. We're in a mess. I think it will be a lot worse....rationing, etc. before it gets better. Just wait, they'll start windfall profit tax again before long instead of realizing money needs to be used to re-enter old wells and get our country as independent as possible of foreign oil.

When I lived in that part of the country, it was common to hear how so-and-so had capped off his wells because he couldn't afford to keep them open, due mainly to governmental regulations and the cost of complying with them. The "word on the street" was that we would have plenty of oil IN OUR OWN COUNTRY if small producers could afford to pump from their wells. I never knew if I should believe the good old boys or not, but I do respect my friend and now I am wondering more about what she said.

Anybody have any insight on this?

Sally

[DCJenn]

Well, if it's anything like the small farmers, I wouldn't be surprised at all. The Haliburtons and other oily (excuse the pun) firms are big and huge and I have no doubt push the little guys out of the way.

Well, if I were a farmer sitting on a quiet oil derrick, I'd just sit back and wait beause they're going to have the upper hand pretty soon.

and, of course, the mantra of the day- Other sources of energy!!!

Jenn

[Sheherezade]

That is an intriguing thought. I know that the geologists made predictions about the available oil in the Gulf region tapering off after the 70s, but tapering off it different than empty. Of course, now we are at the "tapering off" point for the Middle East wells as well based on geologist predictions. I don't know enough about how these models work to know how valid they may be. I can see that the oil won't last forever, though. I don't think it replenishes. (Wouldn't that be great?) I could see small providers having more difficulty with regulation. The question is what regulations and how necessary are they? Sometimes regulation is used as a tool to shut down an industry. Sometimes, it is a valid protection.

I am always surprised by our rabid use of energy coupled with irrationaly rejection of energy sources. Here, there is a debate about letting the natural gas companies tap sources on private property (with permission) because the look of the enterprise would bring house values down in the neighborhood. In MA, there was great debate about using windmills on the Cape because it would block the view. There is talk of windmills in Lake Erie as well-- I haven't heard the counter arguments except cost/benefit and danger to birds. Honestly, the arguments about appearances rub me the wrong way. If your going to use the energy, there will be some cost. If you like the view, turn out your lights.

[spotty_dog]

Thoughts from an Alaskan gal who grew up in the thick of the oil industry...

Here's the thing. Hubbert's Peak of oil production in the US was achieved in 1970. The production of oil goes as a bell-shaped curve: fields are discovered and technologies improved so that production grows exponentially, and then some level is reached at which production levels off, after which scarcity makes the supplies more difficult to pump and production drops precipitously regardless of new technology.

New discoveries and new extraction methods are just a hiccup, a brief delay of the inevitable.

Small deposits, or that darling of the industrious inventor hoping to strike it rich, oil shale, are utterly useless. To make a dent, we need a huge deposit, something on the scale of Texas (totally tapped out, it's been producing at its max since 1970) or Prudhoe Bay (in rapid decline).

ANWR is supposed to be the salvation of the nation, with up to 16 billion barrels in reserve. But in comparison with Prudhoe, which started with almost twice that...well, when I googled to find those numbers I found instead an article that states my point very clearly:

"Despite its size, Prudhoe Bay was not big enough to reverse the decline of American oil production. The greatest year of United States production was 1970. Prudhoe Bay started producing oil in 1977, but never enough to raise American production above the level of 1970. The Arctic refuge will probably have an even smaller effect. Every little bit helps, but even the most successful drilling project at the Arctic refuge would be only a little bit."

So in short no. I don't think that lifting government regulations and pumping the hell out of every known oil source is going to do a bit of good. The way to break free of foreign oil dependence is to quit relying on oil for fuel. :|

[Rapunzel]

To add to the complication of the matter:

My husband has had some, well, "interesting" things happen with his job in the last few months (I wish I could go into detail but I can't ). A very prominant man from Bahrain he will most likely be working with in the near future explained to my husband that Saudi Arabia and Bahrain and the other ME nations KNOW that the oil is going to run out at some point in the future and they are rushing to "diversify" and improve their basic infrastructures (such as healthcare) as quickly as possible so they don't have to rely on American oil money in the short-term and so their nations can continue to exist after the oil production drops off significantly and their reserves go down. He said that that's closer than many in the Western world expect or realize. Comforting, eh?

Interesting that they are seeing the problems with this utter interdependence on oil production. We need to wake up and do the same. We're going to need to come up with an alternative to the combustion engine soon.

Jennifer

I have a friend whose ILs live in Saudi and outside of the leaders, its pretty much third or low second world in terms of infrastructure. There is huge unemployment, and the ME countries are lowering the # of visas for foreign workers so that their own people can get jobs.