New Dawn for Libya!

[GrayMatterWife]

I think Libya is about to become a major hub for radical Islamism because it will have a government that encourages/endorses it. It's going to be yet-another place we are bombing in 10 years after a bunch of religious nutcases start bombing the infidels. Let's all hope to hell they don't have access to nukes.

I hope I'm wrong and Libya becomes a beacon of democracy.

[SoonerTexan]

We also have to remember that with newly formed democractic societies the first 15 years are going to be the most volitile as groups fight for power until they reach a collective stabilized point such as we've seen with South Africa.

South Africa seems like the exception, not the norm, in Africa & the Middle East.

[Cinderella]

We've seen no indication that the Libyan rebels endorse radical Islam. Though I can understand how lack of knowledge about their society and culture can become fear inducing of the unknown. In the new Iraq they also formed their democracy on Sharia law and in the new Afghanistan they also did the same. When a society is predominantly Islamic then Sharia law is was they assert for their family law. Religion is very important there and so they choose to form their democracy around it. Muslims deserve democracy too and who are we to say that our form of democracy is the best one for them. They choose to celebrate not by boozing and partying it up but by prostrating themselves in prayer to their God first and then some dancing and loud yelling and fireworks. That is their prerogative.

I will admit that in the western model of revolution, which is what this one is on, after the over throw of the government it is usually replaced by more hard line extremists who are worse than the dictator before them. Moderates are given the lead first however but the extremists have a difficult time with the moderates approach with taking their time. They typically challenge the moderates for power and the moderates are usually late to the game in cracking down on the extremists so the radicals take the power from the moderates. This is one argument for why the US should not leave Iraq so soon. It's been eight years but there are still another seven to go to stabilize the country. Also the case in Afghanistan. However with Karzai's recent admission he'd side with Pakistan after we've been there nation building this long I'd say we're fighting a losing battle. Then some point to Afghanistan as a model of what is to come for Libya. That we supported the rebels there and then they came back and attacked us and now we're back over there entrenched in a decade long war. However the two countries are vastly different. Afghanistan is a very poor country economically and Libya is a very wealthy country. It's not that Afghanistan doesn't have the resources. It's very mineral rich. In fact a recent survey in the last five years found that it is the most mineral rich country in the world. Why we were doing that survey I have no idea because we're not supposed to be having interests in their natural resources but now we have the information. They however don't have the resources to start a mining operation but if somebody else took interest and came in there they'd basically have unlimited funding for terrorism.

I could discuss this topic extensively but I really do have to get back to my day job right now.

[Momo]

ST you are too young to remember the strife& violence. The colonization of S.A. set up a repressive apartheid regime.

[GrayMatterWife]

We've seen no indication that the Libyan rebels endorse radical Islam. .

That's not correct. There are lots of news stories from very reputable news outlets detailing the some of the rebels' leadership prior participation in Al-Qaida, a group that indisputably endorses a very radical form of Islam. Any google search will turn up articles on the connections between Al Qaida and the Libyan rebel leadership.

I was a Middle Eastern Studies minor in college. I am not completely ignorant or unfamiliar with the culture. I just don't agree with your assessment and outlook.

[scrub-jay]

Though I can understand how lack of knowledge about their society and culture can become fear inducing of the unknown.

If you are insinuating that everyone but yourself is ignorant to the culture and society, I must disagree. Your audience here is an amazing, highly educated wealth of knowledge with a large representation of international (including middle eastern) experience. I would be careful with such broad assertions.

[Pollyanna]

If you are insinuating that everyone but yourself is ignorant to the culture and society, I must disagree. Your audience here is an amazing, highly educated wealth of knowledge with a large representation of international (including middle eastern) experience. I would be careful with such broad assertions.

So very true!

[SoonerTexan]

ST you are too young to remember the strife& violence. The colonization of S.A. set up a repressive apartheid regime.

No, I don't remember it personally, but I do know the history going back to the Boer Wars. I'm just saying the final outcome has been very different than the result of most of the strife in Africa, probably because their original setup was COMPLETELY unique compared to any other African country. My point is South Africa isn't a good comparison historically.

[fluffhead]

I don't agree that the simple declaration of Sharia law indicates a repressive or a terrorist state. I do, however, have great fear about the combination of that with the presence of radical Muslim groups, which are definitely thriving in the region.
We don't have time to sit and watch the country stabilize for 15 years. If Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, Syria and Yemen are all going to be experiments in fledgling democracies at the same time, we (meaning earth-dwellers) coule be in for a very rough ride.

[Cinderella]

I agree with you fluffhead.

I am not aware of recent news articles discussing Libyan rebels associations with terrorist groups. It would seem hypocritical of the US and NATO to support them since it is counter to their interests. I do know the prior regime supported something like that though if that's what you're referring to GMW.

Scrub-jay and Pollyanna I'm sorry that it seems you took offense to a statement that wasn't directed towards either of you but touched you somehow personally. My comment is an observation on how one extreme part of a culture that is actually less than 1% of the population is disproportionately represented in our media 95% of the time. This leaves the main stream being inundated daily thinking that is the status quo for an entire region when it's really not the case at all.

Even though I specifically studied political violence and revolution, and war in college my husband still likes to tell me I don't know anything because I wasn't born there or I'm not from that region. I don't claim to have a PhD in it or that I'm the know it all authority on it. It's been one of my true interests since I was a pre-teen and the first gulf war era. I have studied it extensively in college and do have one degree in it. I've also lived in the region as I'm married to a man from the region. I live with it everyday in our house.

It's alright if we don't entirely agree but we do agree on some points. I know from personal experience that different academics also bring different lines of thought on the subject just from different college profs view points on the matter. It's been very eye opening. I'm interested in discussing it if anyone wants to but I'm not looking for fights. That is all. Carry on.

[scrub-jay]

Scrub-jay and Pollyanna I'm sorry that it seems you took offense to a statement that wasn't directed towards either of you but touched you somehow personally.

My comment was not meant to be offensive in any way, just a reminder that this group is incredibly diverse and you may not know your audience well enough to make assumptions.

Even though I specifically studied political violence and revolution, and war in college my husband still likes to tell me I don't know anything because I wasn't born there or I'm not from that region. I don't claim to have a PhD in it or that I'm the know it all authority on it. It's been one of my true interests since I was a pre-teen and the first gulf war era. I have studied it extensively in college and do have one degree in it. I've also lived in the region as I'm married to a man from the region. I live with it everyday in our house.

My note stands - you are entitled to your opinion and to share that opinion in this space, but I would keep in mind that you may not be the only person who similarly lives with these events (and ramifications) everyday.

I know from personal experience that different academics also bring different lines of thought on the subject just from different college profs view points on the matter. It's been very eye opening. I'm interested in discussing it if anyone wants to but I'm not looking for fights.

My point was simply that you may not be the only one with those qualifications. This group is very diverse and please consider that there may be individuals who are from the region or married to someone from the region (like you) and who may have a different opinion. My tone was not from a place of personal offense, just commenting on an assumption I felt may be inaccurate. I would not presume that every other opinion is only "academic" on this topic, the cumulative knowledge and experience on this site is amazing.

[Cinderella]

Ok scrub-jay got it. My point still stands too in what I meant.

My comment is an observation on how one extreme part of a culture that is actually less than 1% of the population is disproportionately represented in our media 95% of the time. This leaves the main stream being inundated daily thinking that is the status quo for an entire region when it's really not the case at all.

For example Sharia law is practiced 100% to the letter of the law in Saudi Arabia. They cut off a man's hand if he steals and his head when he kills and so forth but the United States doesn't have a problem with them. They have a business relationship with them for oil and they don't see them doing anything counter to US interests there. Al-qaeda or whatever group of the week doesn't actually exist in the region as any source of power there as much as some would like others to believe. Quick disclaimer: Those "some" and those "others" are not necessarily on this forum. The media however has made these terrorist groups giants here. Another big oil producing country Iraq has been practicing Sharia law for 10 years now and we don't have a problem with their new government either. Libya's leader was becoming a problem however because he was losing his mind and they happen to be another big oil producing country which is of course in ours and others interest. It does make me wonder why the announcement of sharia law is a big deal all of a sudden.

[fluffhead]

Yes, the fact that the US is in bed with Saudi Arabia is hypocrisy in action. I guess sometimes you need to be a hypocrite if you want to keep cheap gas in your raceboat docked in Kennebunkport.
The Saudi's use of Sharia law to keep their citizenry in line has been a huge success for them - that's undebatable.
And they've managed to keep all the terrorist groups out of their backyard by keeping them well funded in other countries.

[Cinderella]

I won't pretend to be a great theologian here but I am aware that Wahhabism is an extremist religious movement or ultra-conservative branch of Islam and is the dominate form of Islam in Saudi Arabia. It has developed considerable influence in the Muslim world through Saudi funding of mosques, schools and social programs. Specialist will tell you that the militant Islam of Bin laden did not have it's roots in Abd-al-Wahhab nor is it representative of Wahhabi Islam as it is practiced in contemporary Saudi Arabia. Other specialist will tell you the difference is between deeply-conservative Islamist and the followers of "political Islam" such as the Egyptian Islamic Jihad from the 1980's-1990's. The Saudi Wahhabi's were the largest funders of the local Muslim Brotherhood chapters and other hard-line Islamists during that time but they did not advocate the individual groups decision to wage jihad. A former US "emissary" to Islam said that most extremists follow the ideology of Sayyid Qutb and not the Saudi form of Wahhabism.

And that funding that the Saudi do with their money comes from the sale of oil. It's also called "petro-Islam." They spent 10's of billions of dollars after the rise in the price of oil in the 1970's to spread Wahhabism. Due to this vast and well funded campaign it is now perceived as the correct interpretation of Islam as opposed to the less strict forms. I shall stop myself here before getting on a tangent about everything else I've learned on the subject over the years.

[Meenah]

GMW, while we don't always agree on some topics, there are some that I just KNOW 1000% I will agree with you!!!!