Market Saturation - how to find out?

[WolfpackWife]

Are there reliable ways and/or sources to consult regarding physician saturation in various parts of the country - including which specialties are most/least saturated? I can't seem to find anything that appears to be the "go-to" source, and I'm wondering if that exists.

I figure it's as good a time as any to figure out where to look for current and future reference. Especially when discussing the possibility of considering specialties/sub-specialties other than IM/Cards/Pulm/CC (which is where we seem to be headed now).

[GreyhoundsRUs]

Medtronic will do a market analysis for a specific city. We had them do 4 cities for us.


Wife of a PGY-4 Orthopod

[corn poffi]

WPW, I wouldn't bother doing it this early in training.

[WolfpackWife]

WPW, I wouldn't bother doing it this early in training.

Yes, I understand it's early, but I'm looking at it from the POV of at least getting the knowledge to factor into possible specialty considerations as we approach the match in the coming years. I figure there's no harm in being prepared/knowing what's what. I'm not talking about an attending position - it's far too early for that.

[corn poffi]

No, I understand what you're saying, but your husband should pick the specialty that he loves, because medicine is too long and horrific of a road for him to go into something based on availability.

The match also doesn't care about saturation. And matching in a specific region does not mean that he'll get an attending position in the area.

[SoonerTexan]

Medtronic will do a market analysis for a specific city. We had them do 4 cities for us.

Good to know!

I don't know if you could really find that info now, beyond word of mouth, and I expect it to change dramatically in the next 5-7 years as health care changes come down, physicians retire, and the aging population gets bigger. Unfortunately that puts you (and us and anyone else at this stage of training) in a pretty blind place, but it is what it is.

I think you can always count on certain things, like coasts/mountain areas being more saturated. There are some specialty specific trends too right now, but those could change as well.

ETA: He could talk to people in those specialties and find out some useful residency info. For example, DH has heard a few times that it is a lot harder to get a job in rads coming from a 2nd or 3rd tier* program in the region and to shoot for the best regarded program in the state if you can

[corn poffi]

ST's advice is totally spot-on.

[WolfpackWife]

Yes it's possible that this is not only an irrelevant question but also a stupid one, but I prefer to err on the side of just asking to know rather than not knowing if that makes sense. I'm well aware of the unpredictable nature of what the coming years will bring - but I do sill wonder about sources and information and "how to's" and I think that's just me trying to be prepared and informed, not panicky or foolish or needlessly worrying.

[poky]

No, I understand what you're saying, but your husband should pick the specialty that he loves, because medicine is too long and horrific of a road for him to go into something based on availability.

The match also doesn't care about saturation. And matching in a specific region does not mean that he'll get an attending position in the area.

This.

And if he picks a specialty in two years because there's a shortage of that specialty "back home" right then...3-10 years later, when he's finishing residency, the story could be completely different. DO NOT take "how saturated is this specialty back home" into consideration when picking a specialty. Let him pick what he really really wants to do. And yes, I hear you saying "but he equally likes three different specialties, this could help us pick between them!" - see my first point. Medicine is a bitch of a mistress, and there's NO good way to game the system to stack the deck in your favor. There is no crystal ball.

[WolfpackWife]

Yeah - I know. I think maybe I'm just not coming across correctly and shouldn't have asked. Thanks for the advice anyway. It was a pointless question to ask!

[JDAZ11]

This.

And if he picks a specialty in two years because there's a shortage of that specialty "back home" right then...3-10 years later, when he's finishing residency, the story could be completely different. DO NOT take "how saturated is this specialty back home" into consideration when picking a specialty. Let him pick what he really really wants to do. And yes, I hear you saying "but he equally likes three different specialties, this could help us pick between them!" - see my first point. Medicine is a bitch of a mistress, and there's NO good way to game the system to stack the deck in your favor. There is no crystal ball.

This!!

There were tons of jobs for DH a few years ago. This past year, not so much. I'm still annoyed about it - and will be until I convince him to move.

[WolfpackWife]

Some of the feedback is confusing because when I initially joined iMSN and shared our story so far, some of the comments I received were "good luck getting back to (original area), if you're serious about going back there, you should find out what specialties are less dense there. You're early enough into training that you could make some decisions based on that"...so that's why the question remains in the back of my mind but I'm seeing it doesn't really/never really mattered.

[JDAZ11]

Ah, well location had nothing to do with any decisions - really not even this last one, beyond whether it was tolerable for me (I said it wasn't, and finally he broke me down and we moved here anyway!). So I am of no help - but thought I should mention that things in his subspecialty did change rather rapidly.

[MarissaNicole]

Some of the feedback is confusing because when I initially joined iMSN and shared our story so far, some of the comments I received were "good luck getting back to (original area), if you're serious about going back there, you should find out what specialties are less dense there. You're early enough into training that you could make some decisions based on that"...so that's why the question remains in the back of my mind but I'm seeing it doesn't really/never really mattered.

My advice would be to be open to areas close to home and hope that your DH wants to do private practice in internal medicine or family medicine... and I only say that because I am guessing there will always be a large need for those areas.

I've let DH know that I will not move to timbuctoo for his dream job. ... but I also know that if there are no jobs where we want to be we may have to move somewhere unexpected or less ideal just so he can get a job.

Wife to PGY4

[TulipsAndSunscreen]

Some of the feedback is confusing because when I initially joined iMSN and shared our story so far, some of the comments I received were "good luck getting back to (original area), if you're serious about going back there, you should find out what specialties are less dense there. You're early enough into training that you could make some decisions based on that"...so that's why the question remains in the back of my mind but I'm seeing it doesn't really/never really mattered.

I just don't know that he'll be able to choose based on the density in a specific area. Once he starts clinicals, you'll see - one or two things will REALLY speak to him. We were DEAD SET against anything surgical...lo and behold, we're in a surgical subspecialty.

The other thing on density is the number of training programs in the area. Our area has two training programs 20 minutes apart - however, there are more options if you're in IM/peds because there are more spots. Surgical programs require a certain amount of volume so they tend to be concentrated - for example, there are only 3 (maybe 4) Uro training programs in our state but I believe there are 6-7 in IM. Anyway, those 2 training programs for the same surgical specialty means that this area is more saturated than areas with no training program.